Perspectives

Our search for simplicity is not easy.  We are reminded of our physician’s recommendation to a particular symptom… stop smoking, eat healthy, or get ample rest and exercise – so basic and simple, but often so difficult to implement. People expect something complex or grandiose. Maybe a new type of medication, treatment or surgery; ie a quick fix to my problem.  Is it our human nature to complicate matters?  Or are we impressed by jargon (we know so little and they so much)?  Why this contradiction? It seems we resist these recommendations because it often requires us to change our cognitive patterns and behaviour. Read more >>
South Africans generally tend to be negative – and for good reason. Our perception might be that circumstances are much better abroad.  So what is the reality?  We have major unrest in Europe; especially Greece could destabilize the region.  Greece has a defunct government with no proper tax collection.  With unemployment figures of roughly 27% in both Greece and Spain, what are the prospects for these Mediterranean governments?  The US stock market returned roughly 2.1% per annum in dollar terms over the last 12 years (measured by the “Dow”; the 30 largest companies in the US).  On the contrary our markets have flourished since 2000 (even in dollar terms over the same period).  Apart from its high debt levels, America has many other problems from crime to immigration.  Further, corruption amongst government officials in Russia and China is some of the highest in the world.  Japan had negative economic growth for more than 30 years (the Nikkei dropped about 50% over the last 12 years) and is stuck with a severe demographic problem.  There are too many old people!  Recently international banks reinstituted debt claims against the Argentine government, which was responsible for a complete default and economic collapse between 1999 and 2002.  We had Malema and now it is Nklandla & Co.  There is certainly trouble abroad but we are not alone. Read more >>
With the end of 2011 in sight most investors wish that 2012 will hold in something better. To say the least, total return figures (including dividends) of the JSE ALSI over the last 12 months were dismal.  One must remember that although the market turmoil creates fear amongst investors, it is a sign of change; and change brings about new opportunities and potential economic growth. A visible example is climate change – the direct result of irresponsible environmental policies. Read more >>
Seek facts not opinions... An independent thinker and student of the financial markets said: “Seek the facts and not opinions”. It is not surprising that Dave Foord has one of the longest and most successful investment track records in South Africa.  In our previous newsletter we tried to highlight several biases as well as our human tendency to inevitably make poor decisions when our emotions take over (see the insert). Fear is equally destructive as greed... Read more >>
What we should be aware of...  Though a complex subject, we thought to share a few thoughts on behavioral finance in this newsletter. Recently several articles in various publications discussed this very relevant topic. The roots of behavioral finance are in decision-making theory and psychology and explore the reasoning and motives behind some human errors when investing. In making investment decisions we are more than often our own worst enemy. Read more >>

Pages